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Come join us and attend
Outlook 2012 Executive Conference

#Outlook12

Wednesday, October 19

7:00 AM – 8:00 AM

Registration & Continental Breakfast

8:00 AM – 8:20 AM

Opening Remarks

Keith Fox - view bio»
President
McGraw-Hill Construction

ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index
The Construction Industry Confidence Index, which is published in Engineering News-Record at the end of each calendar quarter, surveys the major design, contracting, subcontracting and construction management companies in the industry to determine what they think of market conditions now, and what they predict in the near future. Each quarter, 700-900 top executives at ENR Top List companies provide their input not just on the overall construction market, but 15 individual market sectors. Harvey Bernstein will present the results of the Q3 survey and opportunities for future business, providing in-depth analysis of the most recent findings along with observations on unpublished results on topical issues addressed in the survey.

Harvey M. Bernstein, F.ASCE, LEED AP - view bio»
Vice President, Industry Insights & Alliances
McGraw-Hill Construction

8:20 AM ? 9:05 AM

The Economic Outlook: Fasten Your Seatbelts

The recession ended over two years ago, but the road to recovery is a slow one and continues to be fraught with potholes. The recovery has to fight against too many headwinds. The housing recovery is still fragile. The overhang of homes available for sale, either through foreclosure or otherwise, will make it difficult for housing to drive the expansion. The consumer has been the lead in the latest two economic expansions, but entered this recession with a record low saving rate and record high debt. The government had taken the lead, but the debt crises in both the U.S. and Europe show that maintaining current fiscal stimulus risks financial disaster. The huge job losses have created a surplus of private office space, and with rehiring slow, there seems little likelihood that commercial construction can lead the recovery. These headwinds will keep the recovery slow and fragile. A dip back into recession is still possible, especially if Europe or the U.S. government debt negotiations deteriorates more or if turmoil in the Middle East escalates and push oil prices to a new record high.

Beth Ann Bovino - view bio»
Senior Economist
Standard & Poor’s

9:05 AM ? 9:50 AM

The Outlook for Homebuilding & Residential Remodeling

The principal reason that the economic recovery has been so sluggish is that the typical post-recession rebound in the residential sector has not materialized. The industry is plagued by an oversupply of homes, and weak demand, and uncertain house prices that are making potential home buyers nervous. The home improvement industry, in contrast, has fared better as owners who face difficulty in selling their home or buying another one are fixing up their current home. This presentation will explore recent trends in housing markets and the adjustments that need to occur in order to produce a more normal residential recovery.

Kermit Baker, Ph.D., Hon. AIA - view bio»
Chief Economist
The American Institute of Architects

9:50 AM ? 10:20 AM

Networking Coffee Break & Sponsor Exhibits

10:20 AM ? 11:05 AM

Building Materials & Labor Cost Trends

Economic theory holds that demand and supply will seek equilibrium. Supply shortage and/or excess demand push prices up while excess supply and/or lack of demand drive prices down. The current deep and long-lasting recession has demonstrated this clearly. However, demand and supply are neither static nor equal across all product classes. Some building sectors simply use more of one product than others (significantly more drywall used in residential construction than in industrial) and so a change in activity in a single sector may disproportionately impact demand for a particular product. The use of some products is fading (either no longer fashionable or a better substitute has become available) while others are coming into vogue (sometimes in response to regulatory change) while the march towards truly sustainable design and the global focus on carbon reduction is impacting product selection in new ways. External factors, such as long-term availability of commodities and speculation, distort prices for commodities and therefore supply and demand for particular products. These things combine to make an interesting kaleidoscopic view that can be hard to make sense of. This presentation will investigate these factors, identify the trends and outline their impact on the construction industry as a whole.

Julian A. J. Anderson - view bio»
President
Rider Levett Bucknall

11:05 AM ? 12:05 PM

Outlook Meets the Media

Members of the media who cover a range of issues facing the construction industry frequently have the "view from 20,000 feet," and can see the big picture on trends that will have an impact in 2012. McGraw-Hill Construction will gather journalists who have insights about major challenges facing construction professionals in 2012: the economy, the lending freeze, the political stalemate on Capitol Hill, and federal agency budget cutting to name a few.

Moderator:
Tom Ichniowski - view bio»
Washington D.C. Bureau Chief
Engineering News-Record

Panelists:
Stella Dawson - view bio»
U.S. Specialist Economics Editor
Thomson Reuters

Jim McTague - view bio»
Washington Editor
Barron’s, the Dow Jones Business and Financial Weekly

Nick Wakeman - view bio»
Editor-in-Chief
Washington Technology

Randy Walerius - view bio»
Transportation Analyst Team Leader
Bloomberg Government

12:05 PM ? 1:30 PM

Luncheon with Keynote Speaker: CityCenterDC

CityCenterDC is one of the largest, single-phase downtown development projects underway in any U.S. city. Developed by Hines, the international real estate firm, and Archstone, a recognized leader in apartment development and investment, the mixed-use development will include office (520,000 square feet), residential rental (458 units), residential for-sale (216 units), retail (185,000 square feet) and a privately-owned public plaza and public park. William B. Alsup, III, a senior vice president at Hines, will provide an overview of the project including the nine-year public/private planning process, the innovative structure of the component uses, and the anchor financing that allowed the project to move forward in the spring of this year.

William B. Alsup, III - view bio»
Senior Vice President
Hines

Introduction by:
Roger Ferch
President
American Institute of Steel Construction

1:40 PM ? 3:10 PM

2012 Dodge Construction Outlook

The construction industry has struggled to gain upward momentum.  After new construction starts leveled off in 2010, it appeared the stage was being set for some growth to take place during 2011.  However, this year the U.S. economy has stayed fragile, carrying with it such headwinds as slow job growth, further declines in home prices, and cutbacks in federal and state spending.  Against this backdrop, new construction starts in 2011 have receded once again, as weakness for single family housing, public works, and institutional buildings have outweighed the improvement shown by multifamily housing, manufacturing plants, electric utilities, and even commercial buildings.  With the divergent behavior by sector likely to continue, will the overall volume of construction activity be able to make the transition from extended bottom to renewed expansion?  This presentation will assess the prospects for the construction industry in 2012, as reflected in the construction start statistics for major sectors.      

Robert Murray - view bio»
Vice President, Economic Affairs
McGraw-Hill Construction

3:10PM – 3:15PM

Closing Remarks

Keith Fox - view bio»
President
McGraw-Hill Construction

 

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