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Outlook 2009 Industry Forecasts and Trends Executive Conference
Kermit Baker
Ph.D., Hon. AIA
Chief Economist
The American Institute of Architects
Kermit Baker, Ph.D. is Chief Economist for The American Institute of Architects (AIA) in Washington, DC. In this capacity, he analyzes business and construction trends for the U.S. economy, and examines their impact on AIA members and the architectural profession.
Baker originated the AIA's "Work on the Boards" survey, a monthly assessment of business conditions at architecture firms, as well as the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel, and writes a regular economics column for the AIA member newspaper, AIArchitect.
Baker is also the Project Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. This research effort is aimed at developing an improved understanding of the dynamics of the U.S. repair and renovation industry.
Prior to joining the AIA, Baker was Vice President and Director of the Economics Department at Reed Business Information, where he was responsible for industry forecasting. During his ten years at Reed, he developed the Top U.S. Construction Markets report, and served as editor of Reed Business Information's Building and Construction Market Forecast newsletter.
Baker received his Masters degree in Urban Planning from Harvard University, and holds a Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the same field. In 2002, Kermit was made an honorary member of the AIA.
Harvey Bernstein
Vice President, Industry Analytics,
Alliances & Strategic Initiatives, McGraw-Hill Construction
Harvey M. Bernstein serves as Vice President of Industry Analytics, Alliances and Strategic Initiatives for McGraw-Hill Construction. He has lead responsibility for MHC’s green building initiatives, including the first ever landmark studies on green construction trends (commercial, residential and education), and was one of the team members involved in launching MHC’s new GreenSource magazine. Mr. Bernstein previously served as the President and CEO of the Civil Engineering Research Foundation. He has written numerous papers covering innovation and sustainability in the built environment, and he co-authored the book Solving the Innovation Puzzle: Challenges Facing the Design and Construction Industry. Mr. Bernstein has an M.B.A in Corporate Marketing from Loyola College, an M.S. in Engineering from Princeton University and a B.S. in Civil Engineering from New Jersey Institute of Technology.
Tucker Carlson
Host, MSNBC's Tucker
Tucker Carlson is a senior campaign correspondent for MSNBC. Until March 2008, he was the host of MSNBC's Tucker, a fast paced, no-holds-barred conversation about the day's developments in news, politics, world issues and pop culture.
Carlson joined MSNBC in February 2005 from CNN, where he was the youngest anchor in the history of that network. At CNN, he hosted a number of shows and specials, including the network's political debate program, Crossfire. During the same period, Carlson also hosted a weekly public affairs program on PBS, Tucker Carlson: Unfiltered.
A longtime magazine and newspaper journalist, Carlson has reported from around the world, most recently from Iraq and Lebanon. He has been a columnist for New York magazine and Reader's Digest. He currently writes for Esquire, The Weekly Standard and New York Times Magazine. Carlson began his journalism career at the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette newspaper in Little Rock. His first book, Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News, was published in the Fall of 2003. In 2006, he competed on ABC's Dancing with the Stars. His game show, Do You Trust Me?, is under development at CBS.
S. Richard (Rick) Fedrizzi
President, CEO & Founding Chairman
U.S. Green Building Council
Rick Fedrizzi, founding chairman of the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), was appointed President & CEO of USGBC in April 2004. Prior to USGBC, Rick was president of Green-Think, Inc., a consulting firm he founded after a 25-year career at United Technologies Corporation. Under his leadership, USGBC has embarked on a number of critical initiatives, such as the development of LEED Version 3.0 and the sustainable reconstruction of the Gulf Coast region. Rick is also driving the Council's comprehensive agenda on global climate change, which includes a major partnership with the Clinton Climate Initiative to implement green building programs in the worlds' 40 largest cities; commitments via the Clinton Global Initiative to green school and residential construction; and internal imperatives to reduce carbon emissions. Rick also spearheaded a major refinement of the LEED Rating System in 2005; integration and capacity building for the Council’s 60+ local chapters; and an internal reorganization to align the Council’s resources with its strategic goals. Since Rick joined the Council, USGBC has launched three new rating systems (LEED for Existing Buildings, LEED for Commercial Interiors, and LEED for Core and Shell Development); upgraded and increased its educational offerings; nearly tripled in staff size; and welcomed more than 3,000 new members, including a new category for professional and trade associations, to the USGBC community.
Dr. Michael J. Mandel
Chief Economist, Business Week
Michael Mandel is chief economist at BusinessWeek, where he helps direct the magazine’s coverage of the domestic and global economies. Since joining BusinessWeek in 1989, he has received multiple awards for his work, including being honored as one of the 100 top U.S. business journalists of the 20th century for his coverage of the New Economy. He recently was named “Best Economic Journalist” for 2006 by the World Leadership Forum. Mandel has written several books, including the 2004 Rational Exuberance: Silencing the Enemies of Growth and Why the Future Is Better than You Think. Mandel holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University, and is currently writing a basic economics textbook for McGraw-Hill, to be published in fall 2008.
John Moebes, AIA NCARB
Director of Construction, Crate&Barrel
John Moebes, AIA, NCARB, is Director of Construction for Crate&Barrel, initially holding the position of Director of Construction when he joined the company in 2006. He is recognized as a leader in the use of Internet-based project management tools, Building Information Modeling, and digital document review to improve project performance.
Before joining Crate&Barrel, Moebes was an Associate Principal at Good Fulton & Farrell Architects in Dallas, where he oversaw the firm’s development and use of workflow technology. Having worked for Modern Continental Construction and Wholefoods Markets, he has experience in all sectors of the AEC industry.
Moebes received his Bachelor’s Degree from the University of Massachusetts and his Master’s Degree from the University of Texas.
John Mothersole
Principal, Industry Practices
John Mothersole is a senior member of the Global Insight Industry Practice. He helps supervise the group's price and wage forecasts, is directly responsible for its nonferrous metal industry forecasts, and is an editor of the Supply Manager, the chief publication of the Pricing and Purchasing service. Other duties have included providing inflation analysis for the Global Insight U.S. Economic Forecasting Service and, with the Industry Practice, project manager for a wide range of cost escalation studies, including projects analyzing hazardous waste disposal, regional highway construction, rapid transit system construction, and international building costs.
In addition to his work with Global Insight clients, Mr. Mothersole has provided inflation analysis to the New York Times, Fortune, Bloomberg, Purchasing, the American Metal Market, Platts Metals Week and the Engineering-News Record. He has also provided commentary on inflation for ABC News, the Nightly Business Report, the Dow Jones New Service's morning newscast and USA Today's First Business report.
Mr. Mothersole joined Global Insight (DRI) in 1980 as an associate economist and has served in a number of positions within the Industry Practice. He received his B.A. and M.A. in Economics from the University of Maryland. Mr. Mothersole is a member of the National Association of Business Economists.
Robert Murray
Vice President, Economic Affairs
McGraw-Hill Construction
Robert Murray is Vice President of Economic Affairs for McGraw-Hill Construction, the leading source of project news, product information, industry analysis and editorial coverage for design and construction professionals.
Murray joined McGraw-Hill Construction in 1980 as an economist, with a primary focus on analyzing construction industry trends. In the mid-1980s he directed a team of economists that developed the Construction Market Forecasting Service, providing five-year projections for 22 building types by nine regions of the U.S. This product has subsequently become the pre-eminent forecast of the nation's construction industry, and it serves as the foundation for other construction and real estate forecast products offered by the McGraw-Hill Construction Analytics Group.
Murray is the author of the Construction Outlook, and also coordinates the five-year industry forecast and the Construction Market Forecasting Service, which analyzes national and regional trends for building products.
Murray received his bachelor's degree from Princeton University, and holds both an M.B.A. and a Master 's degree in economics from Columbia University.
Michael Rogers
Futurist-in-Residence, NY Times
One of the nation's leading experts on the impact of technology on business and society, Michael Rogers is Futurist-in-Residence for The New York Times Company, as well an interactive media pioneer, novelist and journalist. He also writes the popular Practical Futurist column for MSNBC.
Previously he was vice president of The Washington Post Company's new media division, helping guide both the newspaper and its sister publication Newsweek in the new century, as well as editor and general manager of Newsweek.com. He has launched many new media ventures as well as earning a patent for a multimedia narrative technique. Rogers has received numerous awards for his technology journalism and is also a best-selling novelist whose fiction explores the human impact of technology.
He has worked with companies ranging from FedEx and Prudential to General Electric and Dow Corning to help their executives think about the future in fresh yet practical ways. A captivating and entertaining speaker and frequent guest on radio and television, Rogers combines a deep knowledge of technology with practical business experience, and has addressed audiences worldwide ranging from venture capitalists and corporate executives to educators, students and the general public.
Norbert W. Young, Jr., FAIA
President, McGraw-Hill Construction
Norbert W. Young, Jr. is president of McGraw-Hill Construction, the leading source of project news, product information, industry analysis and editorial coverage for design and construction professionals. McGraw- Hill Construction is comprised of such prestigious brands as Dodge, Sweets, Architectural Record, Engineering News-Record, Regional Publications and construction.com. Together, these brands serve as the leading provider of print and electronic products and services to the industrial, commercial and residential construction and building industry.
Norbert joined The McGraw-Hill Companies in December 1997 as vice president, editorial, for Dodge. Previous to Dodge, Mr. Young spent eight years with the Bovis Construction Group, a global leader in the management of high profile construction projects. In 1994, he was appointed president for the newly created Bovis Management Systems (BMS), which was established to serve the construction and project management needs for both private and public sector clients on a national, as well as global basis. Notable clients and projects which benefited from Mr. Young's involvement include the 1996 Summer Olympic Games, Bank of America, NYNEX and Sun Microsystems.
During the 1980's, Young was a partner at Toombs Development Company, New Canaan, CT. He managed all aspects of design and construction, including governmental permitting and approvals for the firm's real estate developments in Philadelphia, Baltimore and New Jersey.
He started his career in Philadelphia as an architect, where he gained 12 years experience covering a wide range of building types and projects. He holds a Master's of Architecture from the University of Pennsylvania and a Bachelor's of Arts from Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME.
A registered architect, his professional affiliations include membership in the Urban Land Institute, a Fellow of The American Institute of Architects and the International Alliance for Interoperability, where he serves as Chairman of the IAI-NA Board of Directors. In addition, he serves as a trustee of the National Building Museum, is a regent of the American Architectural Foundation and an Overseer for the Graduate School of Fine Arts, University of Pennsylvania. He has lectured nationally on such topics as the impact of technology on the construction industry, project delivery approaches, managing the risk of the design and construction process and outsourcing trends.
Norbert resides in Greenwich, Connecticut with his wife, Christine.
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