by Arsene Aka, Senior Economist at Dodge Construction Network
The latest report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the U.S. labor market remained in decent shape last month. The unemployment rate edged down to 4%, owing to a reduction in the number of unemployed individuals. Taking into account new population weights and updates to the seasonal adjustment factors, job gains grew 143,000 last month after rising by an upwardly revised 307,000 in December. Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls of about 170,000 for January. Finally, U.S. wage growth—captured by the average hourly earnings for all U.S. employees on private nonfarm payrolls—remained strong in January, rising 4.1% over the past year. In a separate note, the BLS mentioned that the recent wildfires in California had no discernible effect on employment, the jobless rate and earnings.
Construction employment rose 4,000 in January, easing from 13,000 new jobs in the prior month and an average monthly gain of 12,000 in 2024. Over the month, both residential and nonresidential building construction sectors as well as nonresidential specialty trade contractors saw employment gains, while residential specialty trade contractors and heavy and civil engineering construction sector recorded a decline in employment. Wage growth in the construction sector decelerated from 4.5% year-on-year in December 2024 to 4.1% year-on-year last month. Meanwhile, the jobless rate in the industry, which had steadily climbed since September 2024, reached 6.5% in January 2025 due to significantly lower hiring over the past four months.
Policies implemented by the new administration such as mass deportations, reductions in federal government employment and spending, and tariffs, combined with the policy response of the Federal Reserve will chart the course of construction starts and employment over the next two years. Dodge Construction Network now expects the Fed will reduce key interest rates twice in 2025, down from four rate cuts a quarter earlier, with the cuts taking place in the second half of this year.
