by Olevia Sharbaugh Starkey, Economist at Dodge Construction Network
The Bureau of Labor Statistics measure of job openings in the United States for September experienced a decline of 5% to 7.44 million from the revised August estimate. This represents a month-over-month drop of 418,000 total openings. When compared with the measures of openings for September of 2023 and 2022, this number is 20% and 31% lower, respectively. This time last year, the declines in total job openings were praised as a necessary development as inflation remained high and the job market strong. This year, with inflation cooling and the Federal Reserve beginning a cycle of monetary easing, stability in the labor market is key. The common refrain of “changed little” in the JOLTS releases so far this year is in line with that desired stability.
While the overall labor market remains stable, construction job openings appear to fluctuate. Revised construction job openings for August show a 41% increase from July, the largest month-over-month percentage increase since 2012. Though that is impressive, the double-digit declines in the two months prior to August ensured that the value remained well below the highs seen in 2022 and 2023. September construction job openings posted a decline of 12% from last month to 288,000. As mentioned previously, the response rate for JOLTS is historically low, so these large fluctuations could be the result of a lack of data.
Hires for the construction sector, on the other hand, remained relatively stable at 336,000, a decline of only 3% from the upwardly revised estimate for last month but an increase of 9% from September of 2023. This stability in hiring, coupled with the further decline in interest rates in the future, should prove beneficial to the level of construction starts moving forward into 2025.
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Data Source: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/